Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 50

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 19

(7:45) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NE 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.72 EP

KICK -1.44 EP

26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model