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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 53

New England Patriots 9 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to WAS 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.57 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model