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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 70

Washington Commanders 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NE 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.25 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model