Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 62

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 6

(13:38) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.92 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model