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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 28 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 25-A.Mattison right tackle to NYG 4 for 17 yards (41-A.Bethea).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.88 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP