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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model