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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 14

New York Giants 7 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 2-A.Rosas 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model