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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 82

New York Giants 7 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 41, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at NYG 44 for 15 yards (85-R.Ellison).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 40, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model