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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 15 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:50) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model