4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.63 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model