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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to DEN 29, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 31 for 2 yards (35-T.Pope).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.34 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model