Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 83

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(:49) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to LAC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 20-D.King for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.82 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model