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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to DEN 9, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model