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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Denver Broncos
4th & 7 at the 46
Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(11:03) 6-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.60 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.78 EP
KICK
-1.45 EP
- 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
