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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 84

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 1-T.Long punts 47 yards to DEN 37, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at LAC 45 for 18 yards (16-A.Patton). PENALTY on DEN-19-F.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.12 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 84, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 42, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model