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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to DEN 1 for no gain (22-K.Jackson). FUMBLES (22-K.Jackson), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +4.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 1, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model