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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 22

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.64 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model