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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 3-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-D.Jones), Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.15 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model