Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 94

Cleveland Browns 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(10:35) 7-J.Gillan punts 68 yards to SF 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -3.83 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.56 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model