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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 28 yards to CLE 12, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model