Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 3 – San Francisco 49ers 31

(3:47) 7-J.Gillan punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model