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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model