Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 3 – San Francisco 49ers 28

(10:39) 7-J.Gillan punts 63 yards to SF 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.13 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model