4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to CLE 18, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model