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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 9-R.Gould 32 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-T.Thomas), Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by CLE-39-T.Mitchell at CLE 18. 39-T.Mitchell to CLE 45 for 27 yards (99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.35 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model