Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 3 – San Francisco 49ers 28

(9:17) 7-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to SF 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-12-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.95 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model