Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:41) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-12-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.79 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model