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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:15) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.63 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model