Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 88

Cleveland Browns 3 – San Francisco 49ers 21

(:58) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to SF 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-R.James Jr. to CLE 38 for 32 yards (20-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.41 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model