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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 4-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model