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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model