Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 99

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

(6:17) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to BAL 45 for 13 yards (32-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -3.77 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.14 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 99, worth -6.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model