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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.40 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model