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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.53 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model