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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 59

New York Giants 24 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to WAS 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 5.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.97 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP