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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 69

New York Giants 24 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to WAS 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model