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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 88

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 5-T.Way punts 66 yards to NYG 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-T.Jones to NYG 26 for 4 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).

The Three Options

GO -3.54 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 88, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model