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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 80

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NYG 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.72 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 80, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP