Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 64

New York Giants 17 – Washington Commanders 3

(10:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to WAS 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 13 for 6 yards (30-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model