4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 53

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to NYG 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -2.04 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model