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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 75

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-T.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 17. 80-T.Jones to NYG 17 for no gain (38-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.25 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model