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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model