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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.78 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model