Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 20

(2:30) 9-R.Winslow punts 45 yards to SEA 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 9 for -3 yards (89-A.Isabella).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model