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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 33 yards to ARI 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. PENALTY on SEA-69-T.Ott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model