Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 9-R.Winslow punts 45 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 41 for 6 yards (89-A.Isabella; 87-M.Williams). PENALTY on SEA-55-B.Burr-Kirven, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.23 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model