Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 95

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(4:21) 9-R.Winslow punts 51 yards to SEA 44, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-42-D.Gardeck.

The Three Options

GO -3.54 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.52 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 95, worth -5.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model