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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 30

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model