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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model