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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to IND 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.79 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -2.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model